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Noah Smith 🐇
Actually I think @CJHandmer is probably wrong here. The reason the internet produces (a bit of) uncounted value is that the difficulty of micropayments makes websites partially nonexcludable. AI doesn't have that problem; you can just charge people to use it.
22 tuntia sitten
As measured by GDP, AI will be super undervalued.
How would the datacenter of geniuses show up in GDP?
GDP would show raw inputs (aka chip & energy), and raw outputs (aka cost of tokens). But wouldn't clearly reflect the value of the crazy new shit that's being cooked up in those tokens.
Similar problem to how the Internet's value is undercounted today (since many products are free, and thus contribute nothing to measured GDP).
Perhaps the best way to measure the size of the future AI economy will just be our civilization's total energy use.
Full episode with @CJHandmer out in a couple hours!
(Credit to @jekbradbury and @gwern for mentioning this idea in conversation.)
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Noah Smith 🐇 kirjasi uudelleen
I’m not a GDP maximalist. But over time I’ve come to think it’s not as bad of a measure as it’s frequently made out to be. “Free” services on the internet may not directly translate to increased GDP, but cost savings in one place enable more investment and consumption elsewhere.
79,95K
Noah Smith 🐇 kirjasi uudelleen
China produces 20x+ as much solar as the U.S. (over 1 TW vs. just 50 GW). If solar is the only scalable way to meet the 100s of GWs of extra demand we'll have because of AI, what exactly is the story of how America wins AI?
Is China privileged in the long timelines world? SMIC will probably *eventually* catch up to TSMC - export controls won't preserve the lead forever.
Forget training - even just to deploy AIs through the economy, we'll need tons of tons of new data centers. In the long run, what matters is putting up more energy. And doing that requires massive industrial scale ups across the entire supply chain.
This is what China excels at (and not so much the US). China adds the equivalent of the entire US electricity grid every 4 years.
If AI deployment is just gonna be a matter churning out solar panels, batteries, transformers, switches, substations, etc etc, why doesn't China just dominate by default?
I asked @CJHandmer. Full episode out.
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Noah Smith 🐇 kirjasi uudelleen
This is what’s wrong with our permitting system:
A single NIMBY retiree can spend all her time suing to block wind & transmission projects from being built.
Activists used these same rules to block nuclear projects in the 1970s.
Now they’re being used against all clean energy.
103,66K
OK I admit this was pretty cool
16 tuntia sitten
Someone approved flying a B-2 stealth bomber directly over Putin’s entourage in Alaska.
An insane flex from the US.
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